Why Are Weather Forecasts NOT Always Accurate? [Fully Explained]

Why are weather forecasts not always accurate? This question must be a concern to many people. When the forecast is correct, we rarely comment. However, there is something different we are often quick to complain about. In fact, many factors make errors in the weather forecast, and nonetheless, forecasts for the future cannot be foreseen correctly. Below, we’ll explain why weather forecasts are not always accurate, so check it out now!

Explain why weather forecasts are not always accurate

History of Weather Forecast

Weather forecasts have existed for a long time since ancient times. However, the question “Why aren't weather forecasts always accurate?” often appeared. 

In 650 BCE, the Babylonians forecasted the weather based on cloud patterns and astrology. In about 350 BCE, Aristotle wrote weather patterns in Meteorologica. After that, Theophrastus compiled a Book of Signs about weather forecasting. 

In China, this weather prediction developed at least as far back as 300 BCE, which occurred nearly at the same time as ancient Indian astronomer's methods. 

In New Testament times, Jesus showed his predictive ability by saying: If the sky is red in the evening, it will be fair weather, and in the morning, if the sky is red and overcast, that day will be stormy. 

Ancient people also did not find the correct answer to the weather forecast

There are a lot of stories of ancient weather forecasts. However, in the past, technology did not develop or even not appear. 

All ancient weather forecasting methods usually relied on observed patterns of natural events, also termed pattern recognition. 

For example, through observation, if the sunset was particularly red, the following day often had pleasant weather. This weather observation has accumulated over the generations and has produced weather lore. 

However, not all of these predictions prove reliable, so the question, “Why are weather forecasts not always accurate?“ is an understandable thing. 

Why Are Weather Forecasts Not Always Accurate?

There are many benefits of weather forecasting. While weather forecast accuracy has increased dramatically in recent decades, the coveted 100% mark remains out of grasp. Below are some reasons why is weather forecasting not always accurate.

Data limitations

Weather forecasting is based on two fundamental components: data and computer models. Meteorologists employ a huge network of weather stations, satellites, and radar devices to capture the present condition of the atmosphere. 

They then integrate this information into numerical weather prediction models, which simulate the atmosphere's future behavior.

There may be data limitations

Yet, these models are limited by the data they collect and the processing power available. Gaps in data coverage, particularly over oceans or remote places, can cause uncertainty. 

Furthermore, even the most sophisticated models can only simulate the complex interaction of temperature, air pressure, humidity, and wind.

No single model is perfect

Even if meteorologists can produce very accurate weather predictions, they are still only models. Due to this, the fact that the weather app is not accurate may happen sometimes.

No single model will ever be perfect. Models might be more or less accurate, however. Some are known to perform better during specific lead times than others. Some are recognized to have distinct biases, which skilled forecasters adjust for.

As a result, difficulties arise when the findings of ensemble predictions, for instance, are misinterpreted by laypeople who do not comprehend the forecasts' biases.

This type of misreporting of ensemble forecasts may cause some of the issues that contribute to our daily perception of how the weather will appear.

Distance from the weather station

The majority of weather stations are placed around cities. If you live far from the weather station or in a rural region, the prediction may be wrong because it is not based on your exact location. 

This issue is exacerbated if you reside in a location with more unpredictable weather occurrences or isolated storms.

Distance from the weather station

Dynamic atmosphere and weather

The Earth's atmosphere is a dynamic system that changes and interacts with landforms, ocean currents, and solar activity. 

Predicting the exact timing of rain is like attempting to capture a fleeting moment in a swiftly changing environment. 

While models can offer overall trends, identifying specifics, particularly for localized occurrences, is still a work in progress.

Unpredictable changes

Unpredictable changes may cause inaccurate weather forecasts

The Earth's atmosphere is continually changing in unpredictable ways, even in the short term. That is why the weather forecast is not accurate.

Some places, such as the Midwest, see less predictable weather than others, such as the West Coast. At high elevations, the weather changes more quickly.

Complexity of weather

Predicting the weather involves several parameters, including temperature and UV radiation levels. Because of the intricacy of weather forecasting and the huge volumes of data that must be collected and analyzed, certain errors will always occur.

How Is Modern Weather Forecast Made?

Weather forecasting is really a huge challenge. Modern scientists can not give nearly correct predictions without numerical forecasting, which uses mathematical equations to predict the weather.

Each National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has its forecasting methods. 

Take NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as an example. It operates three types of environmental satellites that keep an eye on Earth’s weather and then give predictions. 

• Geostationary satellites: NOAA launched Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite-R (GOES-R) series satellites, which orbit approximately 22,000 miles above Earth. These satellites have a mission of taking a picture of what the weather is like right now. Geostationary refers to satellites that orbit at the same rate as the Earth rotating. This allows them to collect nearly consecutive images around the same area. 

An image of a Nor'easter off the coast of New England

• Polar-orbiting satellites: Polar Satellite System (JPSS) orbit about 500 miles above Earth. They turn around our planet from pole to other pole 14 times per day. From that, these satellites can observe every part of Earth twice per day. Polar-orbiting satellites can supervise the entire Earth’s atmosphere, clouds, and oceans at high resolution. 

Meteorologists can realize global weather patterns to predict weather accurately

• Deep space satellite: NOAA launched the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) one million miles from Earth. Its mission is to give space weather alerts and forecasts as well as observe how much solar energy the Earth absorbs daily. Moreover, DSCOVR also monitors ozone and aerosols in Earth’s atmosphere. 

NOAA launched the Deep Space Climate Observatory one million miles from Earth

Are Weather Forecasts Getting More Accurate?

Weather forecasts have been increasingly precise over time, mainly thanks to advances in technology, data collecting, and meteorological models. 

Meteorologists can now collect more precise and real-time data on atmospheric conditions due to advances in satellite systems, radar technology, and supercomputers. 

These developments enable improved simulations and predictions of weather patterns, lowering inaccuracies in short- and medium-term forecasts. 

Why are weather forecasts more accurate today?

Furthermore, artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms aid in model refinement by examining massive volumes of historical meteorological data. 

While long-term forecasting remains difficult due to the complexity of weather systems, overall accuracy—particularly for forecasts within a few days—has greatly improved. 

It gives more trustworthy information to people and industries that rely on weather forecasts.

How Far in Advance Is the Most Accurate Weather Forecast?

The accuracy of weather predictions tends to decline as the forecast period lengthens. 

The success rate for one-day predictions is around 96-98%. It falls to around 90% for three-day forecasts. The weather is more likely to alter the further out the prediction goes.

• 3-day forecasts: It is around 90% correct. A three-day forecast is ideal for short-term planning and decision-making. 

The accuracy of weather forecasts

• 5-day forecasts: It has a success rate of little less than 90%. Five-day forecasts can help you plan for predictable severe weather events like hurricanes and snowstorms.

• 10-day forecasts: Unfortunately, 10-day forecasts have an accuracy rate of around 50%. This makes it harder to plan outside activities and trips ahead of time, which may be irritating. Despite that, knowing what the weather will be like is still useful. 

Get Accurate Weather Forecast with Weather Forecast

Weather forecasts can never be completely correct. Yet, as technology advances, predicting becomes increasingly precise. 

Notably, you can easily update the weather on your mobile phone by using the GoWeather app (available for both Android and iOS). It is one of the best free weather forecast apps.

Alternatively, you may visit Goweatherforecast.com, a free online weather forecasting site.

GoWeather app

With a few clicks, you will have access to all of the required weather information, including the weather prediction for today, tomorrow, the following 3 days, 5 days, 7 days, and 10 days in your region or anywhere in the world. 

It also includes real-time weather radar, allowing users to follow weather trends at any point on Earth.

Outstanding features, a nice layout, ease of use, and high compatibility with practically all devices make it easy to acquire current weather predictions from goweatherforecast.com.

Conclusion

Why are weather forecasts not always accurate? Because the weather forecast is a future prediction, too many objective factors can impact the forecasting result, such as data limitations, unpredictable changes, etc. However, meteorologists try their best to produce weather forecast warnings of surprising storms, hurricanes, or other natural disasters as exact as possible.