How Accurate is Weather Prediction? Understand Weather Forecast

Forecasting imminent disastrous weather events early makes the difference between life and death! That’s why weather prediction comes in handy. It goes without saying that science, along with advanced technology, has increasingly made it easy to forecast what the weather will be like in the future. Still, the question raised is how accurate weather prediction is. In this article, we will explore the secret behind it.

How accurate is weather prediction?

What is a Weather Prediction?

Weather prediction is a way of forecasting future conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and time using science and technology. 

It is made by collecting as much data as possible about the current state of the atmosphere combined with the understanding of atmospheric processes to determine what the weather will be like in the future. 

The more range of the forecast is, the less accurate forecasts become. This is due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and an incomplete understanding of the processes.

Weather prediction definition

How Does Weather Prediction Work?

In order to get ideas about what the weather will be like in the future, we first need to know accurately its current status. 

Recordings of weather variables within a day are passed to the world's major weather forecasting centers combined with satellite pictures to get a picture of how the atmosphere is now. These are called observations.

There are three important stages to a weather forecast:

• Capturing data from different sources

• Calculating how this will change in the future (mathematical modeling)

• Using meteorological expertise to refine the details (computation)

Capture data from different sources

Observations about atmospheric elements are gathered every single day from trained observers, automatic weather stations, or satellites. 

During the data assimilation process, information gained from the observations is used in conjunction with a numerical model's most recent forecast for the time that observations were made to produce the meteorological analysis.

How does weather prediction work?

Weather prediction using so many data points is particularly essential for predicting weather in North America, which often encounters harsh vicissitudes of weather. Particularly in the US, which has a vast range of climatic conditions. 

Numerical weather prediction (NWP)

Mathematical models are in the form of equations describing critical processes regulating weather, such as direction, precipitation, wind speed, etc. They are based on collected observations about current weather conditions. 

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions. Regional models have been improved, contributing to tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts.

However, these models could be better for predicting the areas that are relatively constricted.

Process that data with supercomputers

Supercomputers with amazing computational prowess are used in the process of weather prediction. They can complete a large number of calculations every second. These supercomputers are crucial for the generation of weather forecasts.

Supercomputers use mathematical models based on past weather patterns and the geography of that particular region. When this data is sent to the supercomputers, they will run a set of complicated equations and generate a forecast. 

Supercomputers are set up for weather prediction

Some models excel at predicting hurricanes, while others do a great job of predicting general temperature and humidity. This leads to the difference between weather forecasts. 

The result provides the basis of the weather forecast that is displayed in graphs and charts. Meteorologists then interpret the outcome to get a more comprehensive and informed estimate.

How Accurate is Weather Predicting?

It can not be denied that the techniques used in weather prediction have improved by leaps and bounds over the last few years. 

With the development of advanced technology, the present weather forecasting systems are much more accurate than before.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a five-day weather forecast has 90% accuracy. Seven-day forecasts are around 80% accurate. 

Despite the improved accuracy of the forecast over the years, the wrong weather prediction can be unavoidable. 

Moreover, weather data is sometimes not fully understandable by social media, giving the impression that the weather forecast department doesn’t excel at their job. 

Weather forecasting still isn’t an accurate science. Analyzing a multitude of factors can be difficult to model for computers perfectly. Perhaps that’s the beauty of the weather, that even now, with all our supercomputers, it still keeps humans guessing about its tantrums!

Weather prediction and its various benefits

Advances in the usage of artificial intelligence have significantly contributed to the accuracy of weather forecasting. In a few years to come, the weather prediction will be essentially perfect for a zero to a two-day timeframe. 

If we can achieve that, we can be completely sure about the weather’s behavior for at least a day or two and could better plan our trips and outings without any worries!

In fact, there are a lot of reliable websites you can rely on for up-to-the-minute forecasts and weather patterns. 

Goweather takes pride in providing real-time, accurate hourly and 10-day weather forecasts. Visiting the site also allows you to get weather alerts and news. The site is easy to use and beautifully designed. 

GoWeather tool

Why Are Weather Forecasts Important?

As a product of science, weather prediction has a great impact on our lives. Below is a list of multiple reasons why it is important. 

• Help people dress properly to protect their health (i.e., cold weather, rainy weather)

• Help people prepare extra gear when leaving home (i.e., umbrella, raincoat, sunscreen)

• Help people plan outdoor activities

• Help businesses plan for severe weather and other weather hazards

• Help people with health-related issues to plan the day (i.e., allergies, asthma, heat stress)

• Help farmers plan for crop irrigation and protection 

Why does weather prediction matter?

• Help people take precautions against weather dangers.

• Make an uncertain future a little more certain (i.e., knowing changes that will occur in weather).

The Role of Weather Forecasters

Weather forecasting is not entirely based on science. The numerical models used on supercomputers only describe a way of simulating the motion of the atmosphere.

Furthermore, even with a precise prediction for a large area, it is possible that meteorologists need to take into account the local topographic impact on the weather. 

Therefore, meteorological forecasters need weather forecasters' techniques, using their experience and judgment to re-evaluate the results of numerical modeling products performed by supercomputers. 

This helps with more accurate meteorological forecasts.

The importance of weather forecasters

The data that weather forecasters obtain from numerical modeling products, along with knowledge of similar previous cases, can help them make reliable claims.

Hence, the combination of art and science is very important to give accurate forecast results.

Read more:

• Importance of weather forecasting
• How Accurate 7 Day Weather Forecast Is?

Conclusion

So, while the accuracy of weather prediction has been significantly improved, this extremely complex system is resisting our efforts to predict the future accurately. However, you can rely on weather apps for short-range weather forecasts to plan your trip with confidence.